Trump won the whites in 2016 with a solid 20 points: 57-37. However, his approval rate for this group per Civiq's daily tracking survey is only 50-46. This is a catastrophic 16 point decline, a breakdown in core support that he can hardly afford with the thinnest profit margins in 2016. It is a collapse that started with Trump's coronavirus response and has continued to decline since the beginning of the recent waves of protests.
What we can see here is not only that Trump has suffered losses lately, but, just as importantly, that he is not recovering. The white game? At least not yet.
Let's compare the 2016 exit surveys with its current status according to Civiqs:
Trump network approval
2016 exit polls
These are breathtaking drops in support. Of course, this is not a comparison of apples to apples – one survey is compared to another. But it explains why Trump is objectively in such trouble with such horrific approval numbers. And not just at the national level, which doesn't really matter much, but also in the nine battlefield states of Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Michigan, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. See for yourself:
How things are going in Alaska, Montana and Texas, this choice threatens to be even more interesting!
Driving Trump's terrible numbers is still primarily his sad failure to treat the coronavirus pandemic. He and his government may pretend the pandemic is over and the ongoing mass extinctions don't matter, but the public just doesn't buy it:
And once again, the numbers aren't just terrible nationwide – they're terrible on these nine battlefields.
We can be sure that Trump doesn't have to worry about Alabama, West Virginia and Wyoming. However, this is not a picture of success and competence. In fact, at minus 17, Georgia is the only battlefield state where Trump has a rating of less than minus 20.
In the meantime, there may be a move away from Black Lives Matter support among whites:
The "support" has decreased from 44% to 43% and the opponents have increased from 33% to 36%. This appears to result from the mass of "neither supporters nor opponents", which has dropped from 21% to 19%. The movement is small, so we have to wait and see whether it is a statistical float or the start of a snap-back.
To sum it up under Trump's white core base:
Trump's numbers are crap and stable
Trump's reviews of the coronavirus pandemic are crappy and stable
The white feeling is (maybe) a little sour on Black Lives Matter
What does that mean? This means that Trump's personal ratings are not tied to Black Lives Matter, but are driven more by the pandemic. Even if white people are fed up with black people who, under the law, demand equal treatment, it does not mean that Trump would benefit from it.
In other words, Trump's attempt to make this "law and order" election doesn't address the main reason why his numbers are crap: the fact that too many people die from diseases.
In fact, the weird, terrible attendance at his rally this Saturday supports this theory – even his strongest supporters decided that they'd rather stay home than risk infection, illness, and death.
In any case, it's not even that Trump can stay in the message long enough to receive a message. So even if "LAW AND ORDER!" was good news, forget that he stuck to it. Those who were unfortunate enough to actually attend his Saturday rally might have been stupid enough to cheer him over a glass of water, but that's not the kind of message (ha ha) that wins elections.
May keep grandma alive, but he has no interest in it.