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Morning Digest: Our New Spend Tracker Reveals Why Democrats Are Most well-liked To Preserve The Home

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In total, these groups have spent nearly $ 183 million on 58 different competitions, and the distribution is very even: 29 of those seats are occupied by Democrats and 28 by Republicans, with Republican-libertarian Justin Amash also being targeted by both parties is taken. (One of the GOP's "goals", however, is just a trick: Nancy Pelosi.) To date, the GOP has spent $ 92 million and the Democrats $ 90 million, but that doesn't explain the huge financial benefit that Democratic campaigns bring even have a total.

The Republicans assign all the vacant seats to the party they previously controlled and have 201 seats in the House, which means they would have to make a net profit of 17 to win the 218 seats required for a majority. While that doesn't seem very big, especially given the fact that there are 30 Democrats in districts that Donald Trump promoted in 2016, Republicans play both defense and offense, making flipping the house a very large task power.

In our introductory post, we'll explain more about how this tracker works – and what it does and doesn't – or you can just dive right into the data. We'll be posting updates every week during the elections.

3Q fundraising

KS-Sen: Barbara Bollier (D): $ 13.5 million collected, $ 7.6 million in cash

SC Sen: Jaime Harrison (D): Raised $ 57 million

AK-AL: Alyse Galvin (I / D): $ 1.8 million raised

TX-21: Chip Roy (R-inc): $ 1.46 million collected, $ 2.4 million in cash

senate

GA-Sen-B: Both the Democratic firm Public Policy Polling and the Republican pollster Landmark Communications, who works on behalf of WSB-TV, have released new polls on the Georgia Senate special, showing that Pastor Raphael Warnock is in the all-party primary comes first. In the first place is PPP with the results in June in brackets:

Pastor Raphael Warnock (D): 41 (20)
Senator Kelly Loeffler (R-inc): 24 (21)
Rep. Doug Collins (R): 22 (23)
Businessman Matt Lieberman (D): 3 (11)
Former US attorney Ed Tarver (D): 0 (3)

In the rehearsal, Joe Biden also ousted Donald Trump 47-46.

Next up is Landmark, which is the first to publish numbers in this competition:

Warnock (D): 36
Loeffler (R-inc): 26
Collins (R): 23
Lieberman (D): 3

Landmark shows Tarver, whose support has also been rounded down to 0%, behind five other candidates. Respondents prefer Trump 49-47.

Until recently, most polls showed Loeffler came first, while Warnock and Collins were in a close race for second place on an almost certain trick in January. However, several other polls released in late September and early October also found Warnock, who received endorsement from Barack Obama late last month when Loeffler and Collins battled for second place in the runoff election. And while Lieberman has been ranked fourth in most polls for some time, recent polls, including PPP and Landmark, have also shown his support in single digits.

Warnock also has a new commercial telling voters how to find him on the ballot in the 21-person race (!). Warnock, who first queues for lunch in an elementary school cafeteria and is later dressed in graduation gowns, tells the audience, "If your last name starts with the letter 'W', get used to it at the end des And just like I was when I graduated, that choice finds me there again. "

The camera then shows a ballot, as Warnock explains: "In the US Senate special election, the names on the ballot are in alphabetical order. So you have to look all the way down to find Warnock." The candidate concludes: "I may be close to the end of the alphabet and the vote, but I will always put Georgia first."

MT-Sen: Senate Majority PAC has a new commercial tying Republican Senator Steve Daines to China, a country he attacked in his own commercials for months. "Daines lived in China for years, trying to move factories and jobs to lay off 4,000 American workers," said a rancher identified as Cliff, adding, "He's doing the Chinese command and they call him China's Senate cheerleader United States. "

NC Sen: Politico reports that the NRSC has reserved an additional $ 3 million here.

SC Sen: Democrat Jaime Harrison runs digital ads allegedly targeting former Constitutional Party candidate Bill Bledsoe. His real goal, however, is to increase Bledsoe's notoriety in order to offer right-wing voters an alternative to his real opponent, Republican Lindsey Graham. Far-right Bledsoe dropped out of the race earlier this month and endorsed Graham, but his name will continue to appear on the ballot papers. Therefore Harrison "criticizes" him as "too conservative" and at the same time notes that he is "100% pro-Trump, pro-gun, pro-life".

Bledsoe generally only earned 2-3% when polled tested, but that might be enough to swing a close race. Similar efforts regarding libertarian candidates have helped the Democrats win several close races in Montana, but these have always been orchestrated by third groups. However, Harrison's record-breaking $ 57 million fundraiser in the third quarter allows him to advertise in a way that few Senate hopefuls ever can.

More traditionally, Harrison has also launched a new television commercial aimed at his own supporters, narrated by the famous actress Viola Davis, who herself hails from Palmetto. "Something's happening in South Carolina," she says. "Hope things can get better, the belief that we can elect new leaders to put the country before the party, the belief that elections shouldn't be right versus left, but right versus wrong." The minute-long spot shows a well-crafted 10-second segment in which a woman places a Harrison courtyard sign on her lawn and then carefully looks up, hoping to be accepted by her neighbor – who will reward her with his own tentative smile that she returns.

Survey::

AZ Sen: Trafalgar Group (R): Mark Kelly (D): 47, Martha McSally (R-inc): 45
GA-Sen-A: Landmark Communications (R) for WSB TV: David Perdue (R-inc): 47, Jon Ossoff (D): 46, Shane Hazel (L): 2 (49-47 Trump)
GA-Sen-A: Poll on public order (D): Ossoff (D): 44, Perdue (R-inc): 43, Hazel (L): 4 (47-46 Biden) (Aug .: 44-44 draw)
IA Sen: YouGov for CBS: Theresa Greenfield (D): 47, Joni Ernst (R-inc): 43 (49-49 presidential tie)
MI Sen: Baldwin Wallace University: Gary Peters (D-inc): 48, John James (R): 42 (50-43 Biden) (Sept .: 46-41 Peters)
MI Sen: Siena College for the New York Times: Peters (D-inc): 43, James (R): 42 (48-40 Biden) (June: 41-31 Peters)
MI Sen: YouGov for CBS: Peters (D-inc): 47, James (R): 44 (52-46 Biden)
MT-Sen: Public Order Survey (D): Steve Bullock (D): 48, Steve Daines (R-inc): 48 (52-46 Trump) (July: 46-44 Bullock)

AZ Sen: Trafalgar, who usually gives Donald Trump some of his kindest numbers, also polled Arizona's presidential race this month. However, the presidential election took place October 6-8, while the Senate poll was conducted October 6-9. So these are not the same sample of voters.

MI Sen: While Baldwin Wallace University finds Sen. Gary Peters as well as Joe Biden, both YouGov and Siena in particular find the incumbent well behind the top of the ticket. The NYT A poll from Siena states: "Part of Mr Peters' weakness is that he has so far failed to match Mr Biden's numbers among the non-white voters, who remain disproportionately indecisive."

It is possible that James, who would be Michigan's first black Senator, could get significantly more support from color voters than Republicans normally get, though this is far from guaranteed. According to CNN's 2018 exit polls, James lost non-white voters 78:19 when challenging Senator Debbie Stabenow on the last cycle, which was easy worse than GOP gubernatorial candidate Bill Schuette's 77-19 deficit with that population figure.

House

APPROX. 50: The latest ad by Democrat Ammar Campa-Najjar traces the story of Republican Darrell Issa's wrongdoing. One narrator begins by saying that the former congressman "has a long record … a criminal record". The voice-over continues: "Issa pleaded guilty to an illegal gun charge and was arrested with tear gas and firearms. He has been charged with car theft, arson and even downgraded in the military."

"And last year Republicans held up Issa's offer for a job in the Trump administration after his FBI files raised concerns," concludes the spot, a position the Senate never confirmed thanks to its unsavory past.

CO-03: A new DCCC ad hits Republican Lauren Boebert tough for her many criminal and civil violations of the law. "Some people say rules should be broken," the narrator begins. "Lauren Boebert really means it." The ad goes on to describe how Boebert "defied pandemic restrictions to keep her restaurant open", "was arrested three times" and "was not seen if he was not summoned to court". It concludes, "Now this lawbreaker wants to be a legislator? Come on." We have previously dealt intensively with Boebert's arrest story and her mistakes as a restaurateur.

WED-06: The Congressional Leadership Fund ran another ad attacking Democrat Jon Hoadley over a blog he ran in college in 2004 and 2005. It uses remarks that LGBTQ activists say have been taken out of context. The Victory Fund, which supported Hoadley, has also called the advertisement homophobic (Hoadley is gay) and criticized Republican MP Fred Upton for failing to condemn the attacks.

VA-05: In an unexpected move, the DCCC began advertising in the 5th Congressional District of Virginia, a Republican-owned seat that had not previously appeared in any media report about the committee's reservations about television advertising. The spot features two guys wrestling, as one narrator says, "Bob Good wrestled with some radically bad ideas," including "a tax system that will add $ 1.9 trillion to debt and put Social Security and Medicare at risk." . " (As you've probably figured out by now, Good was a wrestler and trainer himself.) "In these troubled times," the ad concludes, "Virginia can't afford another Bob Good body slam."

The DCCC has allocated $ 140,000 to run this ad for the coming week, according to a source tracking Democratic media purchases. To date, the NRCC and CLF have spent $ 712,000 promoting Good.

Survey::

CA-01: Lake Research Partners (D) for Audrey Denney: Doug LaMalfa (R-inc): 49, Audrey Denney (D): 45 (June: 46-41 LaMalfa)
FL-15: DCCC Analytics (D): Scott Franklin (R-Inc): 42, Alan Cohn (D): 39 (46-45 Trump)
FL-16: Change Research (D) for Margaret Good: Vern Buchanan (R-inc): 48, Margaret Good (D): 45 (50-46 Trump)
FL-16: Data targeting (R) for Vern Buchanan: Buchanan (R-inc): 52, Gut (D): 37 (early October: 53-37 Buchanan)
NC-08: DCCC Analytics (D): Pat Timmons-Goodson (D): 42, Richard Hudson (R-inc): 39 (47-43 Biden)

CA-01: This is the first poll we've seen of competition for this Northern California seat since Audrey Denney posted her last in-house seat. Trump won here in 2016 by 56:37, while LaMalfa defeated Denney by 55:45 in the last cycle.

FL-15: The only other poll we saw here was an internal poll in early September for Alan Cohn of GQR that showed Scott Franklin between 49 and 42. At this central Florida seat that supported Trump 53-43 four years ago, there has been no serious national party spending on either side, although this DCCC internal shows the committee is keeping an eye on this race.

FL-16: This is the second straight week we've been running duel polls on this Sarasota seat that backed Trump 54-43 in 2016. Margaret Good recently published an internal report from GSG in which Rep. Vern Buchanan and Trump 49-43 and 49-47; Buchanan hit back with a data targeting survey that saw him lead 53-37. None of the Buchanan publications contained presidential numbers.

NC-08: This DCCC poll is slightly better for Pat Timmons-Goodson than for her in-house Brilliant Corners agent in late September, where Rep. Richard Hudson and Trump were 44-42 and 47-44 ahead, respectively.

Republicans have not released their own numbers from this 53-44 Trump seat, which includes Fayetteville and some of the suburbs of Charlotte. Team Red is behaving like this race is competitive, however, and the Congressional Leadership Fund has already spent over $ 540,000 on Timmons-Goodson.

Legislative

Special elections: There are four runoff elections in Mississippi on Tuesday. Mississippi special elections are officially impartial, so candidates are not identified by party affiliation. Additionally, Mississippi is one of the most difficult dates to process, so we don't have previous President results for these districts, even though we have results from the 2019 statewide plan for races in the State House.

MS-SD-15: This Republican seat with Starkville, home of Mississippi State University, became vacant when former Senator Gary Jackson resigned in June. The educator Joyce Meek Yates meets the businessman Bart Williams: In the first round of voting, Williams prevailed against Yates 34-28. That seat has been solidly Republican in the past as Jackson had little trouble routinely winning re-election, including an unhindered run in the last election in 2019.

MS-SD-39: This southern Mississippi Republican district became vacant when former Senator Sally Doty was named head of the Mississippi Public Utilities Staff. Attorney Jason Barrett takes over the chairman of the Bank of Brookhaven, Bill Sones: Sones led Barrett just under 26-23 in the first round of voting. Like SD-15, this district is heavily Republican, and Doty, like Jackson, was unopposed in 2019.

The composition of this chamber is 34-16 in favor of the Republicans with these two vacant seats.

MS-HD-37: This Republican borough north of Starkville went empty when former MP Gary Chism resigned in June. Former Lowndes County School District Superintendent Lynn Wright faces businessman David Chism, who is the former agent's cousin. Wright almost won a majority on round one, beating Chism 49-32.

This is a solidly Republican district that GOP Governor Tate Reeves wore on his way to a statewide 52-47 win with 64-35. Gary Chism had little trouble winning re-election in that district, including in 2019 when he faced no Democratic opposition and rejected the libertarian Vicky Rose 72-22. Interestingly enough, Rose ran in the first round of voting that year, finishing the race with 19%.

MS-HD-66: This district south of Jackson is the only democratic seat on the property and became vacant when former MP Jarvis Dortch resigned in July. Former teacher Bob Lee Jr. competes against Jackson city councilor De & # 39; Keither Stamps: Stamps led Lee 40-26 in the first round. Dortch was unhindered in both his 2015 and 2019 runs, and Democratic candidates dominated all national races in 2019, with Jim Hood winning 71-28 for governor.

The composition of this chamber is 73-45 in favor of the Republicans, with one independent member and three seats (one in addition to these two) vacant.

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