We’ll start with a look at the GOP-held 3rd District in the western part of the state, where Qanon defender Lauren Boebert ousted Republican MP Scott Tipton in one country June primary shocker and ultimately won the general election. Multiple polls showed Trump was in danger of losing the district, and the Democrats hoped Republicans’ problems were high on the list, as was Boebert’s venomous views and multiple run-ins with law enforcement agencieswould give former MP Diane Mitsch Bush an opening. Although Trump’s 52-46 performance was a significant breakdown from his 52-40 performance last time, it was still enough for Boebert win with a similar margin of 51-45.
Trump occupied his two other districts in double digits, although his lead in both also declined from 2016 onwards. Rep. Ken Buck’s 4th District in eastern Colorado and the outskirts of Denver endorsed Trump 57-41, having supported Trump 57-34 four years earlier. Meanwhile, Rep. Doug Lamborn’s 5th District in the Colorado Springs area voted Trump 55-42 up from 57-33 in 2016.
We turn next to the four constituencies of Biden, the next of which won with 19 points. This was the 6th Ward in the southern suburbs of Aurora and Denver, which was a major battlefield for much of the decade. Barack Obama wore it in 2012 at 52-47. The district backed Clinton with a bigger 50-41 while re-electing the GOP Rep. Mike Coffman this year, but local Republicans took a huge blow in the next two cycles. Democrat Jason Crow ousted Coffman 54-43 in 2018 and won this year without any problems, as Biden was ahead by a margin of 58:39. (Coffman himself managed to land on his feet in 2019 to win a close race for the mayor of Aurora.)
In fact, Crow’s seat has almost overtaken the neighboring 7th Ward, which turned sharply left more than 10 years ago. This constituency includes the parishes of Arvada, Westminster, and Lakewood (home of the real-life Casa Bonita, Eric Cartman’s) Favorite restaurant in South Park), was a competitive area when Democratic MP Ed Perlmutter was first elected in 2006, but has not seen any serious opposition since 2010. The district pulled back a bit, going from 56-41 Obama to 51-39 Clinton, but Biden took 60-37 this time.
The districts 1 and 2 were reliably blue, even though Republicans dominated the state, and they are still today. The Denver-based 1st District of Rep. Diana DeGette selected Biden 76-22, an increase from Clinton’s 69-23. Rep. Joe Neguse’s bouldering area in the 2nd Ward supported Biden 64-34 versus 56-35 Clinton.
Democrats control the governorship and both houses of law, but they won’t be the ones to draw the new cards. The voters approved two independent redistribution commissions, one for the Congress and one for the State Parliament, in 2018.
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