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Biden’s nudge towards the Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is a “warning” signaling a downgrade of the connection

The Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman will be attending a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, on October 14, 2019.

Alexei Nikolsky | Sputnik | Kremlin via Reuters

UNITED ARAB EMIRATES – President Joe Biden’s press secretary delivered a powerful message this week to the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. Jen Psaki told a press conference in diplomatic language that relations between the United States and Saudi Arabia – especially with the Crown Prince of the kingdom – are being downgraded.

“Regarding Saudi Arabia, I would say that we made it clear from the start that we would recalibrate our relationship with Saudi Arabia,” said Psaki from the White House on Tuesday.

When asked if Biden would speak to the Crown Prince, she replied: “Part of this is due to the juxtaposition. The President’s colleague is King Salman, and I expect he would in due course.” have a conversation with him. I don’t have a timeline for this. “

The quotes immediately caught the attention of regional analysts and foreign policy experts, as well as probably executives in the Gulf as a blatant nudge of the 35-year-old heir to the monarchy in Saudi Arabia and arguably the most powerful man in the region.

“Well, I think what Jen said, I know the president would get in touch with his counterpart and that his counterpart is the king,” State Department spokesman Ned Price told reporters on Wednesday.

Price added that Foreign Minister Antony Blinken will work in a similar manner with his counterpart, Saudi Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud.

“President Biden has said that we will review the entire relationship to make sure it serves interests, is respectable, and respects the values ​​we bring to this partnership,” Price said.

“We know, of course, that Saudi Arabia is an important partner on many different fronts. Regional security is just one of them,” he added.

“It’s brave and it will hurt”

“The nudge against MBS is a warning to Saudi Arabia,” wrote Torbjorn Soltvedt, MENA chief analyst at Verisk Maplecroft, in an email on Wednesday in which he referred to the crown prince with his initials. “It is viewed as a disapproval of the leadership of MBS, which has been characterized by unpredictable decisions and a much less advisory approach than in the past.”

And the government’s apparent intent to get the Crown Prince out of the way represents a dramatic departure from Trump’s White House, which made Saudi Arabia the former president’s first overseas visit, despite major arms deals with the kingdom despite opposition from Congress and failed to criticize the kingdom for its human rights violations.

This shouldn’t come as a big surprise, as Biden early promised a tougher line for the oil-rich Islamic monarchy. During a major debate in early 2020, Biden pledged to make Saudi Arabia “the pariah they are”.

“This is not a surprising move, but it is brave and will hurt,” Michael Stephens, an analyst at the Foreign Policy Research Institute, told CNBC. “There is no doubt that Psaki’s comments were directed at the Crown Prince, even though he is in every way the man in charge of the kingdom.”

A number of scandals and crises that have emerged from the kingdom since the Crown Prince came to power have been condemned not only by Democrats but also by Republicans.

A former Obama administration official said anonymously for professional reasons: “The Saudis in Washington are in the worst position they have ever been. They were only covered up by Trump’s White House.”

The Saudi government did not respond to CNBC requests for comment.

Can Biden really get MBS out of the way?

Biden has already paused on a major arms sale to the Kingdom and other Gulf allies signed under the Trump administration, and has ordered an end to U.S. support for the Saudi Arabia-led war in Yemen that created that has what the UN calls the world’s worst man-made humanitarian crisis.

And the kingdom has been internationally condemned because the Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi was killed by state agents in 2018. The US secret service linked the death with the Crown Prince, which Riyadh emphatically denies.

“With the ongoing war in Yemen, crackdown on prominent members of the country’s political and business elite in 2017, the assassination of Jamal Khashoggi in 2018, and the oil price war last year, there is no shortage of raw materials for the Biden government Kick off, “wrote Soltvedt.

But how realistic is the Biden team’s goal of bypassing the Crown Prince – who is also the Secretary of Defense, who is next to the throne and who made most of the kingdom’s most important decisions?

According to Ali Shihabi, a Saudi analyst near the kingdom’s royal court, this is not at all realistic.

“You can’t do anything if you don’t deal with MBS,” Shihabi was quoted as saying when telling Politico. “The king works, but he’s very old. He’s the chairman of the board. He’s not involved in day-to-day matters. After all, you’ll want to speak to MBS directly.”

King Salman, the ruling monarch since 2015, is now 85 years old.

President Donald Trump holds a chart of sales of military hardware as he greets Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in the Oval Office of the White House in Washington, USA on March 20, 2018.

Jonathan Ernst | Reuters

Verisk’s Soltvedt agrees. “King Salman is the head of state and ultimately controls the levers of power. But it is MBS that has direct control over the kingdom’s major portfolios and institutions,” he wrote. “A change in Washington’s approach to dealing with the Saudi leadership will not change that.”

The Biden administration is expected to give the Gulf States a lower priority than its predecessor, but they remain America’s preeminent arms customers and regional counter-terrorism partners, as well as oil suppliers, albeit less from year to year.

While the Biden team signals a postponement, many foreign policy experts believe it will not be a break in relations.

“I think the most important thing is that US policy towards Saudi Arabia has been relatively consistent over the years, regardless of which party was in power,” said Tarek Fadlallah, CEO for the Middle East at Nomura.

“There will be a slightly different tone between this White House and the last White House,” said Fadlallah. “But I don’t think that will have any consequence in terms of politics towards the region or politics towards Saudi Arabia.”

– CNBC’s Amanda Macias contributed to this Washington report.

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