The trends speak most strongly in favor of the Democrats across the sun belt. For example, in California, 45 of its 53 districts had a larger Democratic profit margin (or lower Republican profit margin) in 2020 than in 2008.
Similar patterns have emerged in Colorado and Virginia, two states that rapidly evolved from red to blue in the early 2000s. But perhaps even more important for a democratic perspective are Georgia and Arizona, the latter of which, with the exception of the retiree-heavy 4th district, have almost exclusively moved in a democratic direction.
The downside of the trend in Arizona, Georgia, and Texas is the pattern in Midwestern states like Michigan, Ohio, and Wisconsin, where the trajectory was mostly in the red direction from 2008 to 2020. There are two problems here: first, these states are whiter than the sun belt states and are not diversifying as quickly, and second, they have a much larger rural or small town population than their counterparts in the sun belt, where the majority of the population is urban or suburban .
For Democrats, Florida is possibly the most alarming red-hued state, with 2020 margins worsening almost everywhere except for the Orlando area (7th and 10th districts), Jacksonville (4th) and central Miami (27th district) ). Biden’s performance among the Cuban and South American communities, especially in the 25th and 26th districts, was a sharp U-turn from a decade’s progress, and though he did manage to move on to the various retirement-facing areas throughout 2016 of the state, it was still inadequate compared to Obama’s previous appearances.
For an in-depth look at all of these patterns with cards, check out Jarman’s post.
● GA Sen: Navy veteran and former aide to Donald Trump Latham Saddler launched a campaign for the Senate Thursday. This made him the second notable Republican to join the race after businessman Kelvin King. A slew of much bigger GOP names are still considering, however, including former Senator Kelly Loeffler, former MP Doug Collins, and former NFL star Herschel Walker.
● MO Sen: Republican MP Vicky Hartzler, who has been considering an offer for Missouri’s seat in the open Senate, says she will “likely” announce a decision in June. Hartzler added appealBridget Bowman: “We see it very positively.”
● Oh-Sen: Venture capitalist JD Vance, who last month said he was “thinking very seriously” about joining the Republican primary for the Ohio Open Senate race, told “friends and colleagues” that it would run, according to Axios. However, there is no word on when he could announce a decision.
● MD-Gov: How not to run for office: Just last week, Prince George’s former county director, Rushern Baker, announced that he would seek renewed Democratic governor nomination. “I run because I think we can do better,” he told Maryland Matters.
Looking back this week when Baker told Washington informer William J. Ford that he was still considering an offer. Ford reports that Baker “is considering running” and “is still hesitating,” adding that “no official announcement has been made”. The Baker for Governor Facebook page has not been updated since the last time Baker ran in 2018, and its website, rushernbaker.com, is no longer available.
Meanwhile, another big name seems to have taken itself out of the running for next year. WAMU’s Tom Sherwood reports that Rep. Anthony Brown, who was the unsuccessful Democratic candidate for the Board of Governors in 2014, plans to serve this and the next term in Congress on Transit and Infrastructure.
Turning to the Republican side, Harford County Executive Barry Glassman, who was considering an offer for the governor and also said he could challenge Republican MP Andy Harris in next year’s primary, will not do either. Instead, says Glassman, he will run for the State Comptroller, a position open because incumbent Democrat Peter Franchot is seeking governorship.
But to say the story is against Glassman would be an extreme understatement: the last Republican to win a race for controller was Phillips Lee Goldsborough in 1898. In fact, no Maryland Republican has won a nationwide Downballot office since 1918, when Alexander Armstrong was elected attorney general. However, Goldsborough continued to serve as governor and later as senator.
● NM-Gov: New Mexico reporter Joe Monahan, who has long published a state policy bulletin, says former Republican Governor John Sanchez is apparently considering a run for the governor, noting that he will be a guest speaker at a dinner of next week the Doña Ana County Republican Party. (Doña Ana, home of Las Cruces, is the state’s second largest county.) Sanchez has run for governor before but was knocked down 55:39 by Democrat Bill Richardson in 2002.
However, given the lack of GOP options for statewide office in New Mexico, Sanchez’s name comes up frequently. After Sanchez was elected lieutenant governor during the 2010 Red Wave as a supporter of Republican Susana Martinez, he tried a Senate campaign in the following cycle, but dropped out before the primary. In 2018, he considered offers for the governor and senator, but passed them both on and said and did the same thing in last year’s Senate race.
● OR-Gov: Sandy Mayor Stan Pulliam said this week that he is forming an exploratory committee to consider an offer for next year’s Open Governor race. Aaron Mesh of Willamette Week describes Sandy, a town of 11,000 people, as “one of the fastest growing cities in Oregon, although it is still known as the gateway to skiing and hiking in Mount Hood.” If Pulliam chooses to run, he will join the 2016 candidate Bud Pierce in the Republican Elementary School. A large number of prominent Democrats are also weighing the competition, although none have yet entered.
● VA Gov: Former MP Jennifer Carroll Foy will run her first television commercial in front of Democratic Elementary School on June 8, an introductory commercial focused on healthcare. Carroll Foy says after her grandmother, who raised her, suffered a stroke, the family “was forced to choose between their mortgage and medicine.”
Contrasting this with her own premature twins (which, incidentally, happened when she ran her first campaign for a state delegate in 2017), she said, “I was grateful to have health care – to save her and my life.” In conclusion, Carroll Foy highlighted her efforts to expand Medicaid during the legislature, saying she was struggling “to make healthcare affordable for all of us.”
Republican firm Medium Buying says Carroll Foy has spent $ 185,000 on television and radio advertising to date, although it’s not clear how much is behind that first commercial. The Democratic leader, former Governor Terry McAuliffe, has so far spent $ 544,000 per medium on the radio waves.
● FL-20: Senator Shevrin Jones of Democratic State, who was considering voting in the special election to replace the late Alcee Hastings, says he will not participate in the race.
● KS-03: Republican Rep. Chris Croft, who happens to chair the House Redistricting Committee, is considering campaigning for the 3rd Congressional District of Kansas, which specifically named a top member of his own party as the GOP’s top target for gerrymandering last year has listed. House spokesman Ron Ryckman claims he failed to notice Croft’s interest in a Congressional bid against Democratic MP Sharice Davids when Croft was appointed chairman of the committee and says he could be removed if he actually runs.
Such a facility would of course allow Croft to draw new cards and only later declare himself a candidate – a very obvious conflict that the Democrats have pounced on. Croft argues that the same problem affects every sedentary legislature, as everyone will be participating in the mapping process for their own districts. However, this is an argument for independent redistribution that does not rely on further conflicts of interest.
● TX-08: Some Republicans are already interested in running to succeed Rep. Kevin Brady, who announced his resignation on Wednesday. Former Brady campaign manager Christian Collins tells Patrick Svitek of the Texas Tribune that he is “seriously considering an offer,” while Senator Brandon Creighton and Rep. Steve Toth did not reply directly to watch the race, but they did not rule Possibility. Toth tried to win Brady in 2016 but lost 53-37.